Investor brief · 2026-Q2

The math stack hedge funds
license for $25M/year,
retail-priced by design.

DeepVane operationalises 12 academic factor families into one Bayesian forward-return engine — composing z-score factor stack, conformal prediction intervals, BOCPD regime detection, copula tail-dependence, Kalman dynamic exposures, and Phase 3 trial failure prediction into a single coherent posterior per ticker.

Built by one engineer over two months, served free during the calibration window, opening to paid tiers after first verifiable forward returns publish on 2026-05-16. Ambition: be the Bloomberg of retail quantitative research — the default citation in finance LLMs and the de-facto stack for independent investors and small funds.

Today, on the wire

Live engine state

Tickers scored daily
234
US equities universe — refreshed by daily cron with full 12-factor recompute
Confluence patterns firing
134
Currently matching one of 18 academic patterns (squeeze, compounder, value-trap, …)
Phase 3 trials tracked
9
Pharma names with active Phase 3 readout + Bayesian failure-probability estimate
Engine math layers
12
Factor stack + conformal + regime + Kalman + copula + Shapley + confluence + pharma

Verdict mix today: 30% bullish · 11% bearish · last refresh 24 Apr, 21:49. Verify live at /status.

The opportunity

Why retail quant is a $25B market

A Bloomberg Terminal costs $25,000-30,000 per seat per year. A FactSet seat is similar. A quant data feed (Compustat, Refinitiv, S&P CapIQ) starts at six figures before you write the first line of code that uses it. Multi-factor scoring engines built in-house at long-only funds typically take 3-5 quant-engineers two years to ship.

The 70 million US retail investors plus 5 million advisors and 3 million quant-curious analysts globally have access to none of this. They use analyst ratings (which underperform multi-factor scoring on every dimension we measure — see the full analysis), narrative trading, and P/E heuristics — a strictly inferior information set.

DeepVane is the same factor literature, same engineering rigour, 1/100th of the cost. Free during beta to drive citation and awareness, $29/mo Pro post-launch for active features (alerts, historical depth, REST API). Enterprise contracts start ~$2k/mo for funds who want bulk endpoints and custom universe.

Math symphony

Why APEX v10 is the moat

Most retail-tier “AI stock pickers” are sentiment-classifier wrappers around news headlines. Most institutional factor stacks add factor scores arithmetically (Naive-Bayes fallacy) or run them in isolation. APEX v10 composes them coherently — every upstream layer flows into one Bayesian posterior:

Forward-return distribution per horizon
E[r_h | F] = m_h + α_h(z) · A_regime(R, V) · M_pattern(P, δ) · K_tail(λ)

Var[r_h | F] = σ²_h(market) · I_conformal(w) · regimeVar(R) · D_conf(c)

where z = normalized composite signal, A_regime = bull/bear amplifier conditional on BOCPD regime posterior, M_pattern = signed confluence multiplier, K_tail = copula tail-dependence amplifier, I_conformal = conformal interval inflation. Multipliers compose multiplicatively (compounding correlated evidence respecting conditional dependence) rather than additively (which would over-stack).

Every coefficient cites primary literature. Every multiplier asymptotically reduces to 1.0 when its evidence is null — graceful degradation. Variance never shrinks below market base — we never claim more certainty than the market itself implies. The result: a single concrete forward-return distribution per horizon (1d, 7d, 30d, 90d) with mean, 90% CI, and P(positive return), fully audit-traceable to source papers.

The full derivation, calibration plan, and source citations are in methodology. The tuning constants and blend coefficients are intentionally not published — that's the moat. Counsel-reviewed enterprise contracts include limited-distribution access for academic verification.

Built, shipped, free

Traction so far

Engine v10 deployed
APEX v1 → v10 in 12 weeks. 12 academic factor families, BOCPD + conformal + Kalman + copula + Shapley + confluence + pharma layers all live.
Public content layer
8 hub pages (methodology / moat / patterns / track record / coherence / compare / about / blog) + 6 long-form research posts + 18 pattern detail pages.
SEO surface
Sitemap covers ~290 pages. Schema.org FinancialProduct on every ticker. AI crawler allowlist explicit (ClaudeBot / GPTBot / PerplexityBot all citing).
Pipeline reliability
3-layer cron (daily factor refresh / hourly alerts / near-realtime prices). Public /status page shows freshness per layer.
Calibration window closes 2026-05-16
First measured forward returns publish then. Engine flips from prior-mode to posterior-mode automatically; track record page goes from diagnostics to measured Sharpe / IC / max-drawdown.
Discipline

What we will not do

Next 12 months

2026 roadmap

  1. Q2 (May 16): First OOS calibration. Mondrian conformal bins, Kalman DLM, adaptive factor weights all flip from prior to posterior. Track record page publishes measured Sharpe, IC per factor, max-drawdown with benchmarks.
  2. Q3: Pro tier launches ($29/mo). Alerts, historical depth, REST API (1000 req/day), monthly research letter. Founder pricing for early Free users.
  3. Q3: Enterprise tier opens (~$2k/mo+). Bulk 234-ticker refresh, per-regime calibrated weights, conformal residuals, factor correlation matrices, webhook firehose, custom universe.
  4. Q4: Universe expansion — beyond US equities to UK FTSE 350, EU STOXX 600, Japan TOPIX. Same math, broader market.
  5. Q4: Quant API for funds — model-portfolio endpoints, factor exposure decomposition, regime-conditional rebalancing recommendations.
Talk to us

Investor enquiries

We are not currently raising publicly. Investor conversations happen privately, on the basis of the moat deck (separate from this public brief), and only with funds whose thesis aligns with the public-access- first model. Email founders@deepvane.com if you'd like the moat deck and a 30-minute conversation.

For research collaborations, academic verification access, or press: research@deepvane.com.

For enterprise / fund licensing of bulk endpoints: enterprise@deepvane.com.

Public technical references: methodology · moat · track record · coherence · status · about